Already in the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it became clear that Germany would focus its military assistance to Ukraine on several key areas.
These include artillery, armoured combat vehicles and logistical assistance, but above all the area of air defence, where Germany has so far made greater contributions than anywhere else.
The Gepard SPAAGs quickly became one of the most important systems in the fight against Russian drones, whilst the German government has significantly expanded and modernised Ukraine’s missile defence capabilities over the years through truly extensive deliveries of MIM-104 Patriot and IRIS-T SLM fire units.
Whilst the delivery of five MIM-104 Patriot fire units from Bundeswehr stocks was primarily necessitated by the ongoing Russian ballistic missile attacks, the IRIS-T SLM fire units, which are being newly manufactured for Ukraine, play a crucial role in the defence against Russian cruise missiles.
With an interception rate of over 90%, there is currently most likely not a single more effective missile-based air defence system of this class in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ arsenal.
This makes it all the more interesting that Ukraine, in agreement with the German Ministry of Defence, has apparently decided to upgrade the 18 fire units already delivered and promised to Ukraine, equipping each with two additional launchers.
A contract worth around €182 million between Ukraine and the manufacturer Diehl Defence, with Germany providing the funding, was signed on the sidelines of the German-Ukrainian government consultations held this week.
Possible reasons behind the decision
Although no further details regarding the possible reasons for this decision have been officially disclosed, they are nevertheless obvious.
Unsurprisingly, Ukraine appears to have an immediate need for additional state-of-the-art air defence systems beyond the deliveries already planned, whilst the German Ministry of Defence, however, has only a very limited budget at its disposal.
Until now, this has only been a problem to a limited extent, as the manufacturer, Diehl Defence, has significantly increased its production capacity over the years and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have regularly been given priority in the delivery of newly manufactured ammunition and fire units.
Germany, Estonia and Egypt had in the past for example temporarily foregone the delivery of equipment to their own armed forces so that it could be forwarded to Ukraine.
Those deliveries are now being resumed, whilst others are proceeding as planned. Apart from Ukraine, which, according to my information, is set to receive another three new fire units this year, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Germany are all expecting new material.
In other words: at least this year, there are unlikely to be any additional production slots available for Ukraine. Any additional fire units ordered would probably not be delivered until the end of 2028.
At the same time, the German Ministry of Defence has only a very limited budget at its disposal. Although, at €11.5 billion, more funds have never been allocated for military assistance in a single year, additional projects – including the PURL programme – are now also requiring funding.
It therefore seems that they have settled for the “next best” option: reinforcing the fire units that have already been delivered and pledged.
As various support vehicles, TRML-4D radar units, TOCs and other components do not need to be manufactured and therefore do not incur any costs, the price is relatively very low and is therefore affordable for the German Ministry of Defence.
At the same time, Ukraine’s air defence capabilities are being significantly bolstered with 36 additional launchers.
The next steps in the process
It is also unclear exactly how the reinforcement is to be carried out. However, I cannot see why it should not be carried out in the same way as the previous reinforcement of the IRIS-T SLM fire units.
After all, the German government has already funded the delivery of two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers in recent years, which are delivered alongside each newly manufactured IRIS-T SLM fire unit for Ukraine and have also been retrofitted into fire units delivered before.
It can therefore be assumed that the German Ministry of Defence will follow this blueprint and that the nine fire units pledged will now be delivered to Ukraine, each equipped with one additional IRIS-T SLM launcher (medium range) and one additional IRIS-T SLS launcher (short range), whilst, over the coming months and years, the other nine fire units already in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be retrofitted.
Put simply, this means that the Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM fire units will soon have more than twice the firepower of the units originally deployed to defend Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.
The number of launchers in a fire unit has increased from the original three (3 SLMs) to five (3 SLMs and 2 SLSs). Soon there will be seven launchers (4 SLMs and 3 SLSs), which is likely to be the maximum, as a single fire unit can accommodate a maximum of eight launchers.
The planned upgrade also gives cause for hope regarding the supply of missiles.
After all, there is no point in integrating additional launchers into a fire unit if one cannot meet the resulting demand for additional missiles.
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