For months, the political elite in Germany has been arguing over around €3 billion in additional funds to be used to procure further military assistance for Ukraine in the current year.
According to various media reports, these funds were to be used to purchase an ammunition package for the MIM-104 Patriot fire units already in use in Ukraine, as well as ten wheeled howitzers and additional artillery ammunition, among other items.
Sadly, the differences between the deciding parties were too great and no one wanted to sacrifice any ground shortly before the federal elections, which were held on the 23rd of February. Therefore, no agreement could be reached.
If it was up to the still serving Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party, the SPD, the €3 billion would have had to be secured through a so-called “Überschreitensbeschluss”. In other words, Scholz wanted to take on additional debt to secure the funds.
The reason for this has always been that Scholz considered a budget deficit of around €26 billion to be too large for the next federal government. According to Handelsblatt, the deficit meanwhile stands at around €30 billion.
However, the CDU/CSU as well as the FDP and the Greens have always pointed out that the €3 billion could definitely be financed via the regular budget — no additional debt needed.
In the end, what many people already knew or at least strongly suspected actually materialised after the election. The SPD has lost and will be replaced by the CDU/CSU as the strongest party in the Bundestag.
This means that the CDU/CSU will lead the future government and will most likely also provide the next Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz.
Since Olaf Scholz has stated that he will not be part of a future government led by Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU did not care about the budget deficit and the “old” Bundestag is still able to do its job until the constituent sitting at the end of March at the latest, the €3 billion for Ukraine could now be waved through after all, right?
Unfortunately not. Government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said at today’s government press conference that Scholz is not willing to revise his decision and approve of the funds without taking on additional debt, not even considering recent shocking developments in the US.
Also despite the fact that both Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck and Minister for Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock have both repeatedly spoken out in favour of the approval of the €3 billion and a change of course by their current coalition partner, the SPD, in recent days.
However, it should also be mentioned that, to my knowledge, the CDU/CSU also did not publicly speak out in favour of approving the €3 billion after their election victory.
They are likely currently too occupied with negotiations on two special funds for the German Bundeswehr and the country’s infrastructure totalling several hundred billion euros. These too are planned to be approved by the old Bundestag in a special session in the coming days.
This, however, means that both the originally planned €3 billion and the contracts that come along with them are off the table for the foreseeable future. After all, the coalition talks with the SPD must first be concluded, a government formed and a budget for the current year approved.
Only then can the needed contracts be signed with companies such as Rheinmetall to provide additional assistance to Ukraine.
All in all, at least half a year will have been lost by then, not to mention the certainly disastrous impression the world’s third-largest economy has sent not only to Ukraine and other partners, but also to Russia and its allies.
The only glimmer of hope and a good reason for the CDU/CSU to not lobby for these additional funds would be that the coming special fund would not be made available exclusively to the Bundeswehr, but that a small part of it would also be made available for the military assistance of Ukraine.
If this is the case, it is of course irrelevant that the €3 billion will not be approved now, as Germany would certainly have about ten times the amount of funds available. It would be a significant amount that could close several gaps in the German military assistance over the coming years.
We will probably know for sure in the following days. Various media outlets reported today that Friedrich Merz intends to call a special session of the Bundestag next week to approve both special funds.
Until then, we have no choice but to hope that this scenario actually occurs.
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