During the current mostly negative reporting on Germany’s plans on how to finance its bilateral military assistance to Ukraine from 2025 ongoing, a government spokesperson has now made public for the first time the scope of at least part of the planned deliveries to Ukraine in the coming year.
For 2025, the German government plans to deliver more than 20 PzH 2000, RCH 155 and Zuzana 2 self-propelled howitzers, 20 Marder 1A3 IFVs, 37 Leopard 1A5 MBTs, 5 Cheetah SPAAGs, 3 IRIS-T SLM fire units along with 6 IRIS-T SLS launchers, as well as two Skynex systems and, of course, the appropriate amount of ammunition for all the equipment listed above.
Of course, it must be pointed out that this is not a complete list and only a summary of some of the military equipment already promised.
Artillery and armoured vehicles
Unfortunately, there is no detailed breakdown of the self-propelled howitzers to be delivered, but the announcement nevertheless gives us some valuable information.
Just for information in advance, minus the planned deliveries until the end of 2024, there should still be around 66 of the currently 86 promised self-propelled howitzers to be delivered. A further 20 of these are to be delivered in 2025, leaving 46 pledged artillery systems to be delivered in the following years.
It can be assumed that the delivery of the 18 PzH 2000s promised in February 2024 will then be completed by 2025, as 12 will already be delivered in 2024, contrary to initial publications by the Ministry of Defence that deliveries are not due to start until 2026.
If we assume that the same number of Zuzana 2s will be delivered in the following year as in the current year — i.e. four — this leaves around 10 RCH 155s to be delivered to Ukraine in 2025.
The production of 18 RCH 155s worth around €216 million was approved by the German government in September 2022, while the first howitzer is due to be delivered to Ukraine at the end of 2024. 36 additional ones have been pledged in later announced military aid packages whose delivery will continue until at least 2027 or 2028.
I find it fascinating that 20 additional Marder 1A3 IFVs are listed by the government spokesperson. As of today, these are already to be found on the official list of the German government, but according to Rheinmetall, they are to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of September 2024 at the latest.
So either the government has other plans, or this is another batch that has not yet been officially announced. Regardless of which is the case now, they are definitely very much needed in Ukraine.
The IFVs, which incidentally were highly praised for their performance during the Kursk Offensive, have been introduced to several new units in recent weeks, while it can be assumed that losses in existing units like the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade must also be compensated for.
With the delivery of 37 Leopard 1A5 MBTs, the planned deliveries to Ukraine should then also be slowly completed, even if in theory there should still be some open for delivery in 2026.
So far, 58 have been delivered to Ukraine, while around 30 more are due to follow this year. If we now add another 37 in 2025, this brings us to just around 125 MBTs, whereas according to the German government, 135 are actually to be delivered.
Strengthening the Ukrainian air defence
Let us now turn to Germany’s supreme discipline. With three IRIS-T SLM fire units and six IRIS-T SLS launchers, Germany will greatly improve the capabilities for defence against the daily Russian terror, for example in the 11th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment and the 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade.
Nevertheless, the amount of assistance remains below my expectations. Based on the production capacity announced by Diehl Defence and the publicly available data of customers and their delivery timelines, I would have expected another fire unit.
The delivery of further “Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer”, as they are affectionately known in German, should then finally be completed in 2025. The goal is to deliver five Cheetah SPAAGs, while ten of them are already scheduled for delivery in the current year. This would mean that all 15 promised Cheetah SPAAGs would then be delivered.
It is also interesting to note that although neither Germany nor the US have made a delivery of the Dutch variant to Ukraine public, I have already been able to locate images and video footage that prove the use of the SPAAGs in the AFU as early as winter 2023/2024.
Even the AFU has since published the use of the Cheetah SPAAGs of which up to 60 were bought back from Jordan by the US and Germany back in 2023.
The two Skynex air defence systems promised in February 2024, which are produced by Rheinmetall in Italy, are also to be delivered just as promised back then. Ukraine already has two in service. We recently saw the very first video footage. The video clip, which lasts several seconds, shows a “shooter” of one of the systems with SolarΣShield camouflage installed.
A plan until the end of the year
Just a few days ago, an incomplete list of outstanding military aid that is to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of 2024 was published on YouTube.
The Ukrainian air defence is to be reinforced with two IRIS-T SLM fire units and four additional IRIS-T SLS launchers as well as 10 Cheetah SPAAGs by the end of the year. One of the IRIS-T SLM fire units is being at least partially financed by Norway with €86 million via the German IAAD initiative.
The Ukrainian artillery is also receiving significant back up. There are plans to supply twelve PzH 2000s, four Zuzana 2s, partially financed by Norway and Denmark, and an unknown number of RCH 155s with the appropriate amount of ammunition.
The twelve PzH 2000s primarily stand out here. In February 2024, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the delivery of 18 PzH 2000s in a military aid package. However, according to the MoD, these were not due to be delivered until 2026 and 2027.
It can therefore be assumed, even if we do not yet have confirmation of this, that further howitzers from Bundeswehr stocks will be transferred to Ukraine to enable short-term delivery, while the Bundeswehr will then receive newly produced PzH 2000s from industry in two years’ time.
Additional deliveries of armoured vehicles are also planned with around 30 Leopard 1A5s and 400 FFG MRAPs. As of the 19th of August 2024, not a single FFG MRAP which are licence produced BATT UMG with additional armour has yet been delivered. A delivery of 400 vehicles by the end of the year is therefore more than optimistic.
Furthermore, drones and anti-drone systems are also to be delivered. In the case of drones at least, it is clear that this refers to a three-digit number of Vector UAVs. Germany has already delivered hundreds of them to Ukraine.
Further deliveries of logistical vehicles such as trucks, tankers, various vehicles such as off-road vehicles, pickups, and minivans are also planned.
This also applies to assault rifles such as the MK 556, which have recently been deployed not only with Ukrainian SOF units but also with the Air Assault Forces of the 82nd Separate Air Assault Brigade, medical material and an additional field hospital. This is one of a total of eight Forward Surgical Team stations recently ordered from Rheinmetall.
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Changelog
- 20th of August 2024 — Slight changes to the text to improve the reading quality