I have always defended the German military support for Ukraine, at least when it was really appropriate. Some of you who have been following my project for a while may still remember the article by WELT, I certainly do.
However, it has been dawning on me for a few weeks now that our government needs to hurry up in order to keep the promises it has made.
Unfortunately, we will no longer be able to keep the particularly important promises, so in order to be fair and report neutrally, I feel obliged to write about this in an article as well.
However, I would like to point out once again in advance that there are various reasons for this and that one cannot blame one person, for example, Olaf Scholz alone.
However, the government does, of course, bear a certain responsibility, which it must also live up to. But enough of the introduction. Let us now turn to the real topic — the unkept promises.
“A promise is a promise and will not be broken!”
For this purpose, we will take a little trip into the past. More precisely, I mean June 2023.
Major General Christian Freuding (Head of the Planning and Command Staff & Head of the Situation Centre Ukraine — both German MoD), at that time still a Brigadier General, promises in an interview with Welt am Sonntag that Germany will supply Ukraine with two more IRIS-T SLM air defence systems by the end of the year.
Up to 30 additional Gepard SPAAGs were also mentioned, which were planned to be delivered to Ukraine by the end of the year, in cooperation with the USA. This most likely refers to the Cheetah SPAAGs procured in Jordan.
But what remains of these promises if we subtract everything that has already been delivered so far? Unfortunately, not a lot. According to an announcement by the German MoD, less than 4 months later, all that remained of these promises was a single IRIS-T SLM air defence system, which was delivered in October.
By the way, this has been standing fully assembled in Diehl Defence’s yard since at least the beginning of September, in other words for at least one and a half months, waiting to be delivered — at least according to Diehl.
Although they are still talking about an IRIS-T SLS system, they have obviously made a mistake, as they only supply SLS launchers with which the missiles are launched and not a full system which can operate on its own.
These can “only” be integrated into the IRIS-T SLM air defence systems already delivered, and a specific amount for a specific timeframe was not promised in advance.
Neither the promised second air defence system nor the up to 30 Cheetah SPAAGs that were to be delivered in cooperation with the USA are mentioned.
In addition, I remember (in my eyes) a somewhat cynical sentence from the German MoD press release.
“With these deliveries, we are fulfilling our commitments to Ukraine from the past months”
German MoD
No! Unfortunately, this is precisely what they are not doing. Generally speaking, this second winter package is more of a deception package, despite the newly promised Patriot battery, since it appears that all possible deliveries that were already ordered in one way or another have been included in this package. At least that’s how it comes across in the press release.
Very unfortunate, given that the newly promised Patriot battery will have a massive impact in Ukraine. So, in my eyes, that would not have been necessary at all.
So, as I said before, they are talking about more IRIS-T systems, although they were already promised for many months. If we look only at the SLS launchers, we see that the first 12 of them were already promised in the €2.7 billion “May package”. Only two have been delivered so far. These will most likely be refurbished at FFG in Flensburg.
Therefore, let us note that the new winter package is very strong in any case, and I would also like to emphasise that no other country has provided Ukraine with such a strong package.
However, it must also be said that apart from the 20 million euro package for the Special Forces and about 18 armoured ambulances (assuming that this means Mercedes-Benz Unimogs — otherwise it is about 20), unfortunately “only” the Patriot battery is a new commitment.
Further down in the press release, they talk about 10 Leopard 1A5s, which they want to deliver in the next few weeks, and this brings us to the next promise, which they will most likely not keep.
Leopard 1A5: Very important, but scorned in the media
Together with Denmark and the Netherlands, Germany trains Ukrainian soldiers on Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks in Klietz and also supplies them to Ukraine.
Unfortunately, the number of tanks promised to Ukraine is very vague. Depending on how one counts, however, one ends up with 110 to about 170 main battle tanks that are to be delivered to Ukraine.
This would make the Leopard 1A5 the most supplied Western main battle tank, according to the Oryx overview of arms deliveries to Ukraine (currently managed by Jakub Janovsky), making it an important asset.
If we look back at June, some of us will certainly remember that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited FFG in Flensburg on the 20th of June 2023 together with the Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius, where the majority of the Leopard 1A5s for Ukraine are being refurbished.
There, in a press statement in front of a WiSENT 1 MC, Pistorius, together with Stoltenberg, promised: 80 Leopard 1A5s by the end of the year, with another 30 to follow in 2024.
This promise will most likely not be kept either. Currently, only 30 have been delivered to Ukraine since July (the promised month of the first delivery).
PS: From a purely legal standpoint, Ukraine already possesses the tanks on which training is taking place.
In September, the Leopard 1A5s were once again in the headlines of the press — especially in a negative sense. More on this shortly.
What are the reasons?
According to my overview, two factors in particular play a major role here. On the one hand, the first delivery of the main battle tanks was delayed from April to July due to delays in the refurbishment of the turrets.
On the other hand — after DER SPIEGEL first reported — according to the German Ministry of Defence, intensive training resulted in the third tranche of 10 Leopard 1A5s not being delivered to Ukraine and having to go back into maintenance.
Ukrainian soldiers also did not receive any deeper maintenance training.
If we assume that the current rate of Leopard 1A5 deliveries to Ukraine will be continued (10 per month), then by the end of the year just 40 of the 80 promised Leopard 1A5s will have been delivered to Ukraine.
More promises from the industry
Finally, I would like to have a look at some promises made by the industry, as Rheinmetall in particular is unfortunately known for the fact that it can happen that promised amounts or delivery periods are not kept.
According to their own information, Rheinmetall would like to make the following deliveries by the end of the year:
- Two air defence systems Oerlikon Skynex
- A LUNA NG drone system
- A Forward Surgical Team station
- 10 automated reconnaissance systems SurveilSPIRE
- ~ 40,000 rounds of 35mm ammunition (used to be up to 60,000 rounds)
- Several tens of thousands of shells of 155mm ammunition
Of course, I cannot say what can be kept and whether there is any promise at all that cannot be kept, but it is urgent that we at least keep this in mind.
I would also like to point out that some of the promised systems that I listed in an earlier version of this article have actually been delivered. For example, Rheinmetall fulfilled its promise and has already delivered 20 of the 40 Marder 1A3s to Ukraine.
FFG, for its part, has already delivered 16 or 66 promised FFG APCs (license production of BATT UMG).
Conclusion
It is very difficult for me to draw a conclusion right now, but if I would try, I would say that it is more than annoying that promises are made that — for whatever reason — cannot be kept.
At the end of the day, one must always remember that unfulfilled promises and therefore a non-delivery of certain systems to Ukraine, or even less deliveries, mean the potential death of soldiers and civilians.
If it really happens as it is currently being communicated, just imagine what Ukraine could have done with an additional up to 30 Gepard SPAAGs and an additional 40 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks.
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Changelog
- 14th of September 2023 — Added paragraph on the legal situation of the Leopard 1 delivery
- 07th of December 2023 — Updated the information provided in the article
