During Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hardly any other weapon system has been discussed as often in public for such a long time, both in Germany and abroad, as the cruise missile Taurus KEPD-350.
While Chancellor Olaf Scholz sees his decision not to provide it to Ukraine as proof of his prudence in not allowing this war to escalate, the majority of people abroad, especially in Ukraine, see this as proof that Scholz is being guided by fear and that he doesn’t trust anyone for that matter.
In doing so, he even decided against a significant part of the German government, as the Vice-Chancellor, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Finance and others had all publicly spoken out in favour of a delivery to Ukraine.
Only the Minister of Defence, who belongs to the same party as Scholz, referred to national security issues when asked. This, however, is not real solidarity with the decision made by Scholz.
A decision that could soon be annulled. Today, federal elections will take place in Germany and the CDU/CSU, which has chosen Friedrich Merz as its lead candidate, is currently the frontrunner by a really wide margin.
He is a passionate critic of Scholz’s Ukraine policy and has been campaigning for months, sometimes very intensively, for the delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to Ukraine. It is a commitment that he also repeated several times during his election campaign, both last week and this week.
After all, Ukraine will very probably be able to use the highly desired cruise missile against Russian high-value targets. But how will a delivery actually take place? What are the circumstances, when will a delivery take place and how many cruise missiles can Ukraine expect?
Image: BundeswehrI will get to the bottom of these and other questions in the course of this article by using a hypothetical scenario to make this easier to explain.
CDU/CSU wins the election, then what?
Elections are being held in Germany today. From 8 am to 6 pm, at least 59.2 million eligible voters can cast their votes and decide on the future leadership of the world’s third-largest economy.
For our fictitious scenario, we will now simply assume that the Federal Returning Officer reported the provisional election results on the night of Monday as usual, and it is already clear that the CDU/CSU won the election by receiving the most votes.
However, anyone who now thinks that a new government will rule Germany starting the very next day is very much mistaken.
Based on the polling results of the recent months, the CDU/CSU is likely to get the most votes by a margin of around 10 percentage points, but still has nowhere near enough votes to govern Germany alone for the next four years.
This means that, with Friedrich Merz, they will provide the next Chancellor of Germany, but will need at least one other party as a coalition partner to secure a majority in the Bundestag.
In theory, various coalition models are possible. A coalition with the SPD only, with the Greens only, with both together or a “Germany coalition” made up of the CDU/CSU, the SPD and the FDP. It all depends on who gets how many votes and who passes the magic 5% hurdle to get into the Bundestag and who does not.
However, all of this means one thing in particular: there are very intensive negotiations to be conducted immediately after the election, which may take a long time depending on which and how many parties are involved.
Although the constituent sitting will be held at the end of March, at which the newly elected 21st Bundestag will meet for the very first time, Germany will only formally have a new chancellor once the negotiations have been concluded and a governing coalition has been formed.
From what I have heard from various sources, this is likely to be the case in April or May. However, until then, Olaf Scholz will remain the Chancellor of Germany.
Only after Merz became the new Chancellor of Germany, the cabinet of the Federal Security Council chaired by him can be established as it consists of members of the government such as the Minister of Defence, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Finance and others, and these positions must first be allocated within the governing coalition.
The establishment of the cabinet of the Federal Security Council is necessary as it for example decides on arms exports, which of course also affects the delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to Ukraine.
The new government is in place
Now that these inconvenient but unfortunately necessary bureaucratic steps have been taken, and I have hopefully explained them to you as briefly but clearly as possible, we can finally have a closer look at the Taurus delivery itself.
Friedrich Merz has already repeatedly stated that he wants to consult Great Britain and France first before deciding on the delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to Ukraine, as both countries have already delivered some of their own cruise missiles in order to boost Ukraine’s military capabilities in its fight for survival.
Image: The Presidential Office of Ukraine | CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 InternationalHowever, it is almost ruled out that both countries will speak out against a delivery and that the dialogues will take a long time.
Nevertheless, Friedrich Merz would be well advised to consult with Starmer and Macron while the government is being formed in order to save as much time as possible.
Now that Friedrich Merz, as the new Chancellor, has received the “okay” from both Great Britain and France, he will initiate the next steps as quickly as possible. At the end of the process, the Federal Security Council will decide on the delivery.
However, decisions in the Federal Security Council must be made unanimously. This is why Olaf Scholz, as Chairman, has always been able to block a delivery.
This means that not only Merz and his party, but also his coalition partner(s) must be on board with the decision. If, for example, a coalition is formed with the SPD and only a single SPD minister sticks to the line of Scholz — even though he very likely will not be part of the next government in case Merz wins the election — a debacle is imminent.
However, it is rather unlikely that something like this will happen, so let’s just say the export has been approved. That’s being said, it’s time to get down to business.
A decision was made: Make it happen!
As it is the case with all Western weapons systems that are to be delivered to Ukraine, it will take some time for the equipment to actually arrive in Ukraine due to various factors.
In the case of Taurus, two factors in particular determine how quickly a delivery can be carried out. The training of Ukrainian soldiers and the integration of the cruise missile into a launch platform.
Before we have a look at both factors, I would like to point out that there are of course more minor factors like getting assistance during the training by Great Britain, the mission planning and more, but I cannot and do not want to shed light on them, as it is far too theoretical, for too complex and, to be honest, I really don’t have the necessary expertise.
That’s being said, let’s start with the training of Ukrainian soldiers. The training is divided into different areas and would be carried out partly by the German industry and partly by the German Luftwaffe.
According to Joachim Knopf, CEO of TAURUS Systems, the training of Ukrainian soldiers would realistically take three to four months, meaning it would not be completed until August or September 2025 at least.
Alongside the training of Ukrainian soldiers, the integration of the Taurus KEPD-350 cruise missile into a launch platform will also have to be carried out.
This is due to the fact that Ukraine currently doesn’t operate a fighter aircraft that already had Taurus KEPD-350 integrated. These would be the Tornado, which is used by the German Luftwaffe, but also the EF-18 and F-15K used by the Spanish and South Korean air forces.
Image: Bundeswehr/Andrea BienertWhile in theory at least, the argument that Ukraine could simply be supplied with other fighter aircraft where Taurus is already integrated doesn’t sound so wrong, there is much more to be said against it than in favour of it.
Therefore, let’s have a look at fighter aircraft that are already in service with the Ukrainian Air Force. According to various experts and industry statements, the choice is likely to fall on either the Su-24 or the F-16.
Another option brought to my attention by expert Fabian Hoffmann from the University of Oslo would be the integration into the few Mirage 2000s recently delivered by France.
These are already capable of launching SCALP-EG cruise missiles, and if the Taurus would be integrated into this launch platform, one could certainly hope for Franco-German co-operation.
However, since this is a relatively new option that experts and the industry have not yet really dealt with, at least publicly, I will stick with the Su-24 and the F-16 for the purpose of this article.
Although it would be better to choose the F-16 for the integration in the long term due to the number of F-16s to be delivered (more than 90), the choice will probably fall on the Su-24, of which Ukraine currently operates about 10.
The Su-24 also was the choice for the integration of the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles supplied by Great Britain and France.
While the integration of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG in Poland into the Su-24 took about seven months, TAURUS Systems, which would take over the task, expects it to take about six months to integrate Taurus KEPD-350.
Work on the Su-24 would therefore be completed around November 2025. It would take considerably longer for the F-16. According to Knopf, it is expected to take up at least one year of hard work.
While the training of Ukrainian soldiers and the integration of the cruise missile into a launch platform are being carried out, other smaller tasks such as a minor overhaul by the industry should be completed at the same time to ensure a fast delivery afterwards.
To round this article up, let’s now have a look at how many cruise missiles Ukraine can expect.
The biggest limiting factor for the number of Taurus KEPD-350s to be delivered is the fact that there are currently no orders for additional Taurus cruise missiles for the German Luftwaffe.
Although there are more or less concrete plans to buy 600 additional improved cruise missiles (Taurus NEO) worth around €2.1 billion in order to meet NATO requirements, the funding to realize the project is still lacking.
This means that Germany still only owns around 600 Taurus cruise missiles, less than half of which are currently operational. Although an additional 75 JASSM-ERs have been ordered, these are intended for the F-35s, which are not due to be stationed in Germany until 2027.
Therefore, Taurus is and will remain an indispensable part of the German Luftwaffe’s stand-off capabilities for the foreseeable future and therefore also an indispensable part of NATO’s capabilities to deter Russia.
Image: Bundeswehr/Stefan PetersenGermany will therefore not want to part with a large number of these cruise missiles. While optimists are certainly hoping for at least 200 to 300 of them, which would about be half of what Great Britain and France have delivered together, the actual number is likely to be lower.
A conversation between high-ranking members of the Bundeswehr who were preparing for a briefing with the German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius provides us with additional information on that matter.
This conversation was intercepted and recorded by Russian intelligence services in February 2024 and then leaked on the internet a month later in March 2024.
During the conversation, it is mentioned that about 100 cruise missiles could be handed over to Ukraine, then it would be “the end of the road”. Up to a fifth of them would already be needed just to destroy the Crimean Bridge.
Therefore, depending on which targets, how many targets and how often targets are attacked, Ukraine’s stocks are used up relatively quickly after just a few months.
However, one shouldn’t forget that additional deliveries could be made at any time in the future once contracts for the procurement of new cruise missiles for the Bundeswehr have been signed.
So to summarize…
… one should note that several steps have to be taken before a delivery to Ukraine could be carried out. This is likely to be the case at the end of the year.
However, I would like to point out once again that this is only a theoretical scenario. The timeline could shift by several months, depending on how long coalition talks take place, whether there are problems with the training of Ukrainian soldiers or with the integration of the cruise missile and so on.
I very much hope that this article has provided you with some insights. If Friedrich Merz really does become the next Chancellor of Germany, we will have no choice but to wait and hope for the best.
Editor’s note: Although this article reported in considerable detail, I would like to specifically point out that no information was disclosed which the Russian government has not been already aware of for a long time.
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