Months after initial reports that the German Ministry of Defence has requested approximately €3.8 billion in additional funding for providing military assistance to Ukraine throughout the current year, there now appears to be some excellent news!
During a visit to the 1st Airborne Brigade in Saarlouis, Germany’s Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius announced today that the talks that have been underway for several months are going very well and that an agreement on a figure could probably be reached by the end of the week.
Although Pistorius does not mention an exact sum, he does speak of several hundred million euros in his press statement. According to SPIEGEL, the German Ministry of Defence expects around half a billion euros. A sum that I consider to be very realistic.
Although this is only a fraction of the amount originally requested, an additional €500 million could already help Ukraine a lot!
Anyone expecting some major deliveries of heavy equipment will probably be disappointed. According to media reports, additional spare parts and ammunition are at the top of the German Ministry of Defence’s wish list.
That doesn’t sound like something that would make anyone jump for joy, but spare parts for the weapons systems and vehicles supplied by Germany are in particularly high demand since basically day one of their delivery.
It feels like not a single quarter goes by without a major newspaper reporting on a serious shortage of spare parts. In my opinion, orders worth hundreds of millions of euros for spare parts for Leopard 1 & 2 MBTs, ATF Dingo 2s, Gepard SPAAGs and PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, would therefore have a significant impact!
At least for the PzH 2000s, the German government has already concluded a contract with Rheinmetall in late May for a three-digit number of L52 gun barrel systems worth a three-digit million euro sum, which will be delivered until the end of 2029. Therefore, securing the long-term supply of spare barrels.
Regarding ammunition, I assume that it is probably not about 155mm ammunition, but about smaller calibres. After all, Germany has already concluded several contracts with various companies for the production and supply of artillery shells, deliveries of which will not end for several years.
According to my calculations, around 400,000 155mm artillery shells that were announced by the German government are currently awaiting production and delivery in various countries.
However, if you look at how many are actually delivered to Ukraine every month, it will take a few years until the current contracts are completely fulfilled.
Considering this, I can only mention once again that I would not assume that additional contracts for the production and supply of 155mm ammunition will be signed, as it would not be something that could be supplied to Ukraine in the coming months.
It would make much more sense — provided, of course, that Ukraine asks for it — to conclude contracts for the production and supply of additional firearm ammunition and 40mm ammunition for grenade launchers.
In recent months, great progress has been made in the delivery of ammunition from previously concluded contracts, and the volume of ammunition still to be delivered is becoming smaller and smaller.
An alternative that has nothing to do with the spare parts and ammunition are urgently needed German-made drones. Some time ago, Ukraine notified the Ministry of Defence of its need for additional Vector eVTOL UAVs for next year.
Around 187 of these drones are currently still awaiting delivery, but it is expected that they could be delivered by the end of the year. What will happen after that? Unclear at the moment, as the German government apparently lacks the money to fund new drones to be produced and delivered.
Ukraine would like a total of 800 Vector drones for 2025. These would have a value of approximately €160 million and would therefore fit perfectly into the €500 million in additional funding and still leave room for some contracts related to spare parts.
In any case. In the end, we must not forget that we currently do not know with certainty whether, when and how much additional funds will be made available for the military assistance to Ukraine.
We only know one thing. It is absolutely necessary with one hundred per cent certainty.
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