In the upcoming fourth winter of war, Ukraine will once again suffer massively from regular nightly attacks by Russia.
For several weeks now, the Russian army has been intensifying its terror campaign with drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and other deadly weapons, increasingly targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The objective is clear. Millions of Ukrainians are to be cut off from electricity, heating, and water supplies. This could have serious military and economic, but also social consequences, not only for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole. Consequences that would strengthen the position of the Russian ruler, Vladimir Putin.
To counteract this, the German government is not only placing great emphasis on decentralising Ukraine’s energy supply, but also on providing the Ukrainian army with extensive support in the form of air defence systems, ammunition and other equipment needed to repel the nighttime attacks.
One of these air defence systems provided by the German government is the Europe-wide highly valued “IRIS-T SLM” manufactured by the German defence company Diehl Defence.
Currently, eight fire units of the air defence system are already in operation around the clock in Ukraine to secure Ukrainian airspace, particularly against Russian cruise missiles.
The German government has already pledged to provide a further ten fire units in the future, including two more this year. However, a source familiar with the deliveries has now confirmed to me what I have suspected for several months: the pledge for this year will not be honoured.
Although another IRIS-T SLM fire unit (the third this year) will be delivered to Ukraine before the end of the year, further deliveries will not take place until next year. This means that the German government remains obligated to provide Ukraine with one more fire unit next year, in addition to the already planned deliveries.
Pledge only increased this year
It is interesting to note that the number of fire units promised for this year was only increased in the spring. Last year, the German government promised three fire units for 2025.
During the first UDCG meeting under German-British chairmanship in April 2025, the German Ministry of Defence announced in a press release that, with the use of additional funds that had recently been made available for the military support of Ukraine, four IRIS-T air defence systems, including 300 missiles, would be delivered to Ukraine this year.
Together with the fire units previously promised for 2025, whose production was financed with previously allocated funds, this would have meant the delivery of a total of seven fire units this year.
A few days later, however, the German Ministry of Defence corrected an article about the UDCG meeting and the pledge of additional military equipment, announcing that only one of the four newly pledged fire units would be delivered this year, bringing the total delivery pledge to four IRIS-T SLM fire units.
“So now a fourth IRIS-T system will be added in 2025. All four can be delivered in 2025.”, writes the German Ministry of Defence.
Under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, however, surprisingly not a single fire unit was delivered to Ukraine this year. It took a full six months before the first IRIS-T SLM fire unit pledged for this year was put into Ukrainian service in June.
In August, I then exclusively reported that another one had arrived. But already back then, I expressed my doubts that the public commitment for this year could be met. Doubts that have now been confirmed.
Upon enquiry, neither the German Ministry of Defence (for reasons of military security) nor Diehl Defence (for reasons of confidentiality) were willing to comment on the details of the delivery delays.
However, a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defence told me, among other information, that the German government remains fully committed to providing the necessary resources for Ukraine’s defence and is in constant communication with the Ukrainian authorities on this matter.
It can therefore be assumed that these authorities have long been aware that Germany will not be able to fully meet its delivery obligations this year – at least as far as IRIS-T SLM is concerned.
Just recently, I reported that all the Skynex air defence systems promised for this year are already in use in Ukraine, and that the two MIM-104 Patriot fire units promised in August were also delivered to Ukraine on time.
It remains to be seen how the delivery delay will ultimately affect the efficiency and effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defence this coming winter. What is clear, however, is that Ukraine continues to rely on ongoing military support and that the German government must deliver in the coming months what it has failed to deliver this year.
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