No other country has supported Ukraine as much as Germany in terms of supplying Patriot fire units and associated equipment. If we exclude ammunition deliveries, even the US falls behind.
To date, Germany has delivered three complete fire units as well as four additional launchers and spare parts to the Ukrainian army, while two additional launchers are expected to arrive shortly. The delivery of an additional radar unit has been rumoured for some time, but has never been officially confirmed.
Despite the extensive deliveries that have already been made, there is now the possibility of a further transfer from Bundeswehr stocks.
The New York Times reports, citing four former and current US officials, that not only will one of the decommissioned Israeli Patriot fire units be delivered to Ukraine, but also that Western allies are discussing the possibility of supplying an additional fire unit from German or Greek army stocks.
It is difficult to explain why Greece, of all countries, which as a NATO member has hardly provided Ukraine with any support without expecting anything in return, is being considered for this task.
Especially because even other countries such as Poland or Sweden, which have supported Ukraine with far more military equipment, have so far categorically rejected deliveries of Patriot fire units or even individual components.
The probability of a Greek delivery is therefore close to zero, also because a Greek government official who spoke on condition of anonymity has already denied that Greece might deliver a Patriot fire unit to Ukraine.
That leaves the Bundeswehr, and there are two perspectives to consider.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Defence has repeatedly pointed out that extensive and very painful transfers have already been made from Bundeswehr stocks and that not one of the eight fire units ordered last year has yet arrived at the German Luftwaffe as a replacement. In principle, this means that there is virtually no room for manoeuvre.
On the other hand, two factors should not be ignored here, which in my opinion could also speak in favour of a delivery.
Replacement has already been ordered
Contrary to many other transfers from Bundeswehr stocks, in this case replacements were already organised some time ago. Last year, the Ministry of Defence ordered two batches of four fire units each worth a total of over €2.5 billion for the German Luftwaffe — three as replacements for those previously handed over to Ukraine and five as a capability increase.
According to hartpunkt, the first delivery is due to arrive at the Bundeswehr before the end of this year. The best conditions for another, nonetheless painful, delivery to Ukraine.
The IAAD initiative
The “Immediate Action on Air Defense” (IAAD) initiative should also not be ignored. The IAAD initiative was jointly organised by the German Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence with the aim of strengthening the Ukrainian army with additional air defence.
Of course, Germany also took part in its own initiative and got the ball rolling in April 2024 with the announcement that it would supply a third Patriot fire unit to Ukraine!
As it happens to be, it was only a few weeks ago in Brussels that the Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, announced that the Ministry of Defence was considering relaunching the German IAAD initiative.
The same initiative that was utilised to deliver a Patriot fire unit to Ukraine last year.
Considering this, I believe it is possible that, as part of a relaunch of the IAAD initiative, the fourth German fire unit for Ukraine could be announced in just a few weeks, with its delivery likely taking place around September.
One problem remains
Let’s assume that the deliveries are carried out as reported. With the delivery of two further fire units, which in this case were organised in Israel and Germany, Ukraine will then have a total of ten systems to defend against ballistic missiles in particular — but a central problem remains.
Even 10, 20 or 50 fire units will ultimately be of no use to the Ukrainian army if it cannot solve the problem of ammunition supply.
Since last year, there have been repeated reports that there is a serious shortage of missiles and that the air defence systems are “running on low power” as a result.
Without additional long-term contracts worth billions and additional purchases from existing US army stocks, the Ukrainian army is therefore at risk of being left with virtually no ammunition in just a few months.
Deliveries from other countries’ army stocks are also unlikely to be an option. Germany has already donated a significant amount of its own stocks (328 missiles). Only recently, a further 30 missiles were pledged — more is hardly possible.
One should probably not hope for voluntary deliveries from US stocks and, apart from small deliveries from the stocks of the Dutch and Spanish armies, countries such as Poland, Sweden, or Greece refuse to deliver their own missiles completely.
One can therefore only hope that, in parallel with the sourcing of additional fire units, the Ukrainian side will make intensive efforts to secure long-term contracts to supply the Ukrainian army with new interceptors.
If not, it is quite possible that the total of 10 MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems could start to gather dust this year.
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