Planned deliveries for 2025: Status after one quarter

In August last year, a government spokesperson published a list of military equipment that the German government planned to deliver to Ukraine as part of their military assistance over the course of 2025.

After about a quarter of a year and after the funding for military assistance for the current year was recently increased by around €3 billion, I thought I take the opportunity to review how much of the originally promised equipment Germany has already supplied.

Back in August, it was announced that the German government planned to deliver more than 20 self-propelled howitzers, 20 Marder 1A3 IFVs, 37 Leopard 1A5 MBTs, 5 Cheetah SPAAGs, 3 IRIS-T SLM fire units along with 6 IRIS-T SLS launchers, as well as two Skynex systems and, of course, the appropriate amount of ammunition for all the equipment listed above in 2025.

Of course, this is only a selection of heavy equipment, not the entire list. Germany will also deliver a wide range of drones and anti-drone systems, engineering equipment, protective and special equipment, firearms and more.

Now let’s have a closer look at the promised equipment.

Self-propelled artillery

More than 20 self-propelled artillery systems are to be delivered this year. If one looks at the systems already contracted and their known delivery dates, it should be clear that the outstanding deliveries must be one PzH 2000 and six RCH 155s from German production and refurbishment plus nine or ten Zuzana 2s from Slovakian production.

The one PzH 2000 is the only remaining ex-Qatari one which has not yet been delivered. The other eleven units acquired via a deal between the German government and Qatar were already delivered at the end of 2024, which means that their delivery is actually ahead of schedule, as only half of the total amount was scheduled to be delivered in 2024.

The remaining 18 PzH 2000s, which have already been contracted, will not be delivered to Ukraine until next year.

The single PzH 2000 is joined by the first six RCH 155s, which were ordered back in September 2022. The first RCH 155 was officially handed over to Ukraine in January, even though the system is currently still in Germany and Ukrainian soldiers are being trained on it.

Based on the fast delivery of the ex-Qatari PzH 2000s, I assume that the only remaining one will be delivered in the upcoming weeks. The first RCH 155 will also be delivered in the near future, as KNDS Deutschland CEO Ralf Ketzel stated in an interview with hartpunkt, that the first delivery is planned for April 2025.

The remaining systems are made up of 13 or 14 Zuzana 2s from Slovakian production, of which four were already delivered in February. This means that 20% of the self-propelled artillery systems promised for 2025 have already been delivered.

With these deliveries, the Zuzana 2 contract will finally be fulfilled. 16 of them were ordered back in October 2022 together with Denmark and Norway for a total of €92 million and their delivery had been repeatedly delayed since 2023.

Additional IFVs and MBTs

In the area of armoured combat vehicles, 20 Marder 1A3 IFVs and 37 Leopard 1A5 MBTs have been pledged for this year. Numbers that sadly likely cannot even fully compensate for Ukrainian losses on the battlefield.

Not a single vehicle has been delivered in the first three months. However, according to Rheinmetall, all the infantry fighting vehicles are to be delivered in the next three months, as they wanted to fulfil their contract in the first half of the year.

Interestingly, there are contradictory quantities for both the Marder 1A3 IFVs and the Leopard 1A5 MBTs.

A further five Marder 1A3 IFVs were pledged in January, bringing the total number to 25 instead of 20. The five additional ones will also be delivered this year, while currently only 32 instead of 37 Leopard 1A5 MBTs are left to be delivered, as the planned deliveries for last year were fortunately exceeded.

Extensive deliveries in the area of air defence

The most substantial and impactful deliveries will probably be made in the area of air defence. Even without the recently approved €3 billion package, large-scale deliveries of SAM systems and cannon-based air defence systems are to be carried out this year.

Let’s start with the SAM systems. Originally planned was the delivery of three IRIS-T SLM fire units and six IRIS-T SLS launchers.

Except for two IRIS-T SLS launchers whose delivery was made public in February, no deliveries have yet been made this year. However, since Diehl Defence’s production capacity is constantly being increased and the last delivery to Ukraine actually took place quite some time ago, a delivery of an IRIS-T SLM fire unit should be imminent.

A further 5 Cheetah SPAAGs and 2 Skynex air defence systems are also to be supplied. In the case of the Cheetah SPAAGs — the Dutch version of the Gepard SPAAG — deliveries were already carried out, as three SPAAGs which represent 60% of the planned deliveries have been handed over in March.

In fact, I expect that the target will even be exceeded, as the deliveries planned for 2024 were unfortunately not fully realised. Only five of the ten planned Cheetah SPAAGs were handed over, so they must be additionally delivered this year.

The two planned Skynex air defence systems were publicly announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February 2024 as part of a military aid package worth around €1.1 billion. There, too, the delivery of one system should actually be imminent.

Ammunition deliveries

As already mentioned in the beginning, substantial deliveries of ammunition are also to be carried out in addition to the promised systems. I can already say in advance that these are actually being carried out as announced.

In the past three months, 69,000 155mm shells and 23,000 122mm artillery shells have been delivered, which corresponds to around 28.56% of the total number of artillery shells that Germany delivered to Ukraine in 2024.

There have also been several deliveries of ammunition for the Marder 1A3 IFVs and Leopard 1A5 MBTs, even without the delivery of new systems, although I do not know the exact amounts.

Extensive deliveries of ammunition for the German-delivered air defence systems have also already been carried out.

In the past three months, a high double-digit or low triple-digit number of IRIS-T (SL) missiles were delivered for the IRIS-T SLM fire units and IRIS-T SLS launchers, as well as 51,000 rounds of HEI-T ammunition for the Gepard and Cheetah SPAAGs.

Conclusion

In conclusion, I would like to emphasize once again that a fair share of the assistance originally promised for 2025 has already been delivered in the first quarter of this year and alongside this, extensive deliveries of equipment such as drones, protected vehicles or firearms were also already carried out.

Just one example to demonstrate this. With nearly 6,000 assault rifles, machine guns and precision rifles delivered in the first three months of the year, Germany has already delivered around 69.1% of the total number of firearms delivered in the whole of 2024.

For a better understanding, I have also created an overview of the systems whos delivery is planned for this year and of how many of them have already been delivered.

Furthermore, the planned deliveries of Marder 1A3 IFVs are likely to be fulfilled in just a few weeks, as Rheinmetall has announced that all IFVs contracted will be delivered within the first half of the year.

Although overall the total volume of deliveries in the first three months is lower than in the months before, this was to be expected, as funding has been more than €3 billion lower so far this year compared to the previous year.

With the increase in military assistance for 2025 by a further €3 billion, this situation is likely to change noticeably in the second half of the year.

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