After the crown of Ukraine’s largest supporter in absolute terms was passed on to Germany following the 180-degree shift in US foreign policy under President Trump, the German government intends to leave no room for doubt regarding this fact in the coming year either.
Thus, the 2027 draft budget provides for a slight increase in the funding that the German government intends to allocate next year as part of its military assistance to Ukraine.
The sum currently earmarked in Section 60 (General Financial Administration) of the budget for “Federal expenditure on aid to states under attack in breach of international law” – and thus for military support for Ukraine – amounts to €11.612 billion.
At first glance, the German government is therefore making around €65 million more available next year than it is this year. However, on closer examination, it becomes clear that the funding for actual military assistance is expected to be increased substantially by well over half a billion euros. As the saying goes, the devil is in the detail.
A breakdown of the budget
As in previous years, the budget is spread across several items, and not everything labelled as military assistance for Ukraine actually ends up benefiting Ukraine directly in the form of equipment.
According to the draft budget, the German Ministry of Defence’s main budget allocation stands at around €9.05 billion, marking the first time the €9 billion mark has been exceeded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the current financial year, the main budget allocation amounts to less than €8.5 billion.
Funding to be provided under the German government’s “Enable & Enhance Initiative” is also set to rise significantly. The Ministry of Defence (BMVg) is planning with around €538.1 million. This is around €22.27 million more than the amount allocated this year.
This is even more evident in the case of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (AA), which also contributes to the fund. In the past, this money has been used to supply reconnaissance drones, vehicles and other goods for military purposes, in particular to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine.
According to the draft budget, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ share for the coming year stands at €180 million, which represents an increase of €120 million compared with the current year. That’s a 200% growth!
But how can it be that the funds mentioned above for military assistance for Ukraine have increased by a total of €744.672 million, whilst “on paper” the total funds made available have risen by just around €65 million?
The answer lies in the types of expenditure that only indirectly benefit Ukraine. For instance – and this is unknown to many – equipment that was previously handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Bundeswehr stocks is not replaced through the regular defence budget, but is instead funded via Germany’s Ukraine assistance.
As a result, every year many hundreds of millions of euros – or even a billion euro figure – of the total available funds were invested in deliveries to the Bundeswehr rather than in new equipment for the Ukrainian military. This is a highly controversial approach.
It is precisely these funds that are set to decrease significantly next year. Whilst just over €1.81 billion will be invested in the replacement of equipment for the Bundeswehr in 2026, the German government plans to allocate less than €1.15 billion for this purpose in 2027. This represents a reduction of around €664.47 million.
The reason for this is likely to be that, since 2024, new deliveries from the Bundeswehr’s stocks have rarely occurred, and equipment previously transferred had already been increasingly replaced.
According to preliminary plans, the funding allocated to the European Peace Facility is also set to fall slightly. Through the European Peace Facility, the EU finances, for example, military equipment and training programmes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This funding is set to fall from around €688.63 million to around €648.63 million, representing a reduction of €40 million.
The cost of medical treatment for Ukrainian soldiers in Germany, funded by the Ministry of Health (BMG), is also included in the planned figure of €11.612 billion.
Although, according to EU figures, Germany takes in and treats by far the largest number of soldiers and civilians through the European Union’s civil protection mechanism, this item – at €25 million – is, as in the previous year, essentially negligible.
Finally, it is worth noting that, for unknown reasons, the transport of equipment and the rental of containers were listed for the first time as a separate item, also amounting to €25 million. In previous years, these costs were included in the items mentioned earlier.
| Items | 2025 (target) | 2026 (target) | 2027 (planned) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support for Ukraine (BMVg) | €5,997,056,000 | €8,444,616,000 | €9,047,022,000 |
| Enable & Enhance Initiative Ukraine – BMVg share | €224,242,000 | €515,808,000 | €538,074,000 |
| Enable & Enhance Initiative Ukraine – AA share | €56,157,000 | €60,000,000 | €180,000,000 |
| Replacement (BMVg) | €1,173,894,000 | €1,812,749,000 | €1,148,278,000 |
| European Peace Facility Ukraine | €757,472,000 | €688,626,000 | €648,626,000 |
| Treatment of Ukrainian soldiers (BMG) | €50,000,000 | €25,000,000 | €25,000,000 |
| Transport & container rental | / | / | €25,000,000 |
| Together | €8,258,821,000 | €11,546,799,000 | €11,612,000,000 |
The budget timeline
It is therefore clear that the funding to be invested in providing actual military assistance to Ukraine will increase significantly by just over €744 million. At least according to current plans, as nothing is set in stone yet.
At present, the draft budget has cleared just half of all the hurdles. In early July, following several months of consultations, the Federal Cabinet approved the government’s draft budget and the financial plan up to 2030.
In accordance with the Basic Law, the Bundestag ultimately decides on the budget, which is why the government’s draft budget and financial plan were submitted by the Federal government to the Bundestag and the Bundesrat on the 14th of August 2026, in the middle of the parliamentary summer recess.
The Bundestag will then debate the matter after the parliamentary summer recess during the first of three readings, which typically takes place during the first sitting week in early September.
This will be followed by negotiations in the Budget Committee, where adjustments will certainly be made. It is possible that this may also affect military assistance to Ukraine.
On the 13th of July, at least two members of the Budget Committee – Andreas Schwarz (SPD) and Sebastian Schäfer (The Greens) – travelled to Ukraine for a week, where they held talks with high-ranking politicians, ministries and key industry players.
Such impressions are important and will ultimately determine whether the Budget Committee increases the funding earmarked by the Federal government even further, and whether Ukraine may ultimately have an additional billion euros at its disposal.
The second and third readings in the Bundestag then take place in late autumn, whilst the budget is usually adopted by Parliament in November. At the same time, the Bundesrat also reviews the draft budget and subsequently approves it. In most cases, the latter is a mere formality once the Bundestag has given its approval.
Once the Minister of Finance, the Federal Chancellor and the Federal President have signed it, the budget for the coming year will be finalised in the winter.
It will therefore only become clear in a few months’ time to what full extent Germany will be able to support Ukraine next year. What is clear is that the likelihood of the estimated funding being reduced in the course of the negotiations is likely to be virtually zero.
So this is good news for Ukraine, which not only remains in urgent need of our support in the coming year, but also truly deserves it.
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