From the 1st of October 2025 to the 13th of November 2025, the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States took place. For 43 days, it dominated much of US politics and forced countless government employees to take unpaid leave, resulting in major disruptions in various areas of the country.
However, it also had an international impact, particularly in the area of security policy. On the 9th of November, when the government shutdown was still in full swing, Axios reported that US arms exports worth $5 billion had been delayed.
Deliveries of ammunition and weapon systems to Denmark, Croatia, and Poland were mentioned by name, while it was unclear at the time whether the delays also included deliveries to Ukraine.
By now, it is clear that arms deliveries to Ukraine were also directly affected by the US government shutdown. This may have contributed to the deaths of several civilians and caused millions in economic damage.
In concrete terms, this refers to the delivery of two MIM-104 Patriot fire units from Bundeswehr stocks, the delivery of which was publicly pledged on the 1st of August.
Although the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on the 2nd of November, some three months later, that the deliveries had now been completed, Germany’s Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius announced after the Group of Five meeting on the 14th of November that the delivery could have been carried out more quickly if the shutdown had not occurred.
According to Pistorius, the approval for the deliveries to Ukraine was missing. It is necessary because the “Patriot” is an air defence system produced in the United States.
According to my research, a large number of DDTC (Directorate of Defence Trade Controls) employees responsible for such deliveries were placed on leave, which must have caused a whole series of delays.
However, it is unclear how long deliveries to Ukraine were actually delayed due to the lack of an export authorisation and what impact this ultimately had in Ukraine.
The only thing that is certain is that both fire units were delivered sometime in October. During that month, for example, on the 10th and the 22nd of October, there were two major Russian attacks on Ukraine with a total of almost 900 loitering munitions and 60 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and more.
More than half a dozen civilians were killed and around 70 others were injured, some seriously. The attacks, which were deliberately targeted at civilian infrastructure, also led to nationwide power outages that directly or indirectly affected hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.
On both days, the Russian army also used ballistic missiles against Ukraine, which makes the possible absence of one or two Patriot fire units due to delivery delays even more serious, as it is the best suited air defence system for intercepting such targets in Ukraine and the Ukrainian Air Force was only able to intercept an average of about 35% of ballistic missiles before they reached their target.
However, I must point out that some of the information in this article is purely speculative.
We do not know exactly how long the deliveries were delayed, nor can we say with absolute certainty when both fire units arrived in Ukraine and were subsequently put into service. It is therefore impossible to assess with certainty what impact the delays had.
The only thing that is clear is that there were verifiable delays due to the shutdown, which, in view of the greatest security challenge on the European continent since the Second World War, almost certainly had consequences.
It should therefore be noted that the government shutdown in the United States must serve as a renewed wake-up call for Europe to reduce dependencies and to develop and maintain critical capacities more strongly itself.
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